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Crise Euro Already Starts Negative Speculation

bhoot — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 17:40:44 +0000

The effects of the last 2008 recession was felt a bit late in the Mauritian stock exchange: the lowest point came about Feb-March 2009. Now we hear of the recent Euro Crisis and the market went down a bit last week… already?

A bit too quick. Naiades shares that has risen from Rs 26 to 28 went back to 25.5 (it’s back to 26.x now); Air Mauritius went down from 14 to 13 and is still going down. So are a few other companies. Will this trend persist? I think it will be temporary. It’s not the big financial crisis that coming again. It’s too early, if you base upon Robert Allen’s theory of cyclic markets (I know he might not be an authority, but his words make sense)…

I’ll persist with almost the same list of companies I recommended last time: SBM, NRL (it has good cashflow and is underpriced: other resorts groups are about 2x their NAV), AIRM (when it has gone down a lot – anyway, it’s underpriced), GIDC, Omnicane (these two are long term). The Shell, GCL and Rogers remain solid companies but let’s wait for a fall. If you bought MCFI and BAIN (as in the previous list) it’s time to sell.

Now is the time to invest in the Mauritian Stock market – March April May 2010 –

bhoot — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 21:25:00 +0000

Most companies have recovered from the crash that the local market following recession. The SEMDEX reached its minimum last year in March 2009, some companies falling as low as their nominal values! But since there, the market has roared. If I had put my money then, I’d be happy with a 25-100% profit… Demand kept rising until recently…

There’s now a fall… I read somewhere that Mauritians spend less in February-March. That’s post new year effect… I wondered if it applies to investors as well. The current decrease in the prices of some companies seem to suggest that it is the right time to get in again… MCB, Naiade, ENL Commercial… are just few of the companies that I spot. You’ll say Naiade is making losses, but I’d say it won’t be long. The other groups in the sector are already priced past their NAV…

Companies to watch in my opinion:

MOR – Mauritius Oil Refineries
MCB
BAIN
SBM
MCFI
NRL – Naiade Resorts
GIDC – ENL Commercial
AIRM – Air Mauritius

Rain and Meteo – Is it time to declare moonsoon à Maurice?

bhoot — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:31:05 +0000

So it was all sunny at work, but it had to be raining when I reached St. Julien d’Hotman. Unbelievable fog on top of that from St Julien d’Hotman – l’Unité – St Julien Village. Never have I seen such a fog in this region. 8 pm, my windshield wipers were used up, they didn’t clean the water well. Though it was a mild shower, I could barely see the end of the road. My bi-halogen projector headlights were covered with dust or grease from the days my car stayed at the mechanic… Should have cleaned them I knew…

Saw my friend’s 1970 car right in front of me. Ah good, he’ll show me the way. But at 25kph, I’m going to stay here so much longer. I decided to overtake, it always feels good to do so. Now the even harder part. Used my memory of the years I drove this road to determine where the road was, each time braking when a vehicle approached in front with blinding headlights…

Finally I reached Lallmatie, the rain hadn’t stopped. Put on the TV, there was meteo, “the weather will be cloudy in the east tonight.” Yes, that’s how precise even current events can be reported by local meteo…